The regional consequence of a disaster: Assessing employment transition during economic recovery
Journal of Economic and Financial Sciences
| Field | Value | |
| Title | The regional consequence of a disaster: Assessing employment transition during economic recovery | |
| Creator | Dyason, David | |
| Description | Orientation: Large-scale events such as disasters, wars and pandemics disrupt the economy by diverging resource allocation, which could alter employment growth within the economy during recovery.Research purpose: The literature on the disaster–economic nexus predominantly considers the aggregate performance of the economy, including the stimulus injection. This research assesses the employment transition following a disaster by removing this stimulus injection and evaluating the economy’s performance during recovery.Motivation for the study: The underlying economy’s performance without the stimulus’ benefit remains primarily unanswered. A single disaster event is used to assess the employment transition to guide future stimulus response for disasters.Research approach/design and method: Canterbury, New Zealand, was affected by a series of earthquakes in 2010–2011 and is used as a single case study. Applying the historical construction–economic relationship, a counterfactual level of economic activity is quantified and compared with official results. Using an input–output model to remove the economy-wide impact from the elevated activity reveals the performance of the underlying economy and employment transition during recovery.Main findings: The results indicate a return to a demand-driven level of building activity 10 years after the disaster. Employment transition is characterised by two distinct periods. The first 5 years are stimulus-driven, while the 5 years that follow are demand-driven from the underlying economy. After the initial period of elevated building activity, construction repositioned to its long-term level near 5% of value add.Practical/managerial implications: The level of building activity could be used to confidently assess the performance of regional economies following a destructive disaster. The study results argue for an incentive to redevelop the affected area as quickly as possible to mitigate the negative effect of the destruction and provide a stimulus for the economy.Contribution/value-add: This study contributes to a growing stream of regional disaster economics research that assesses the economic effect using a single case study. | |
| Publisher | AOSIS | |
| Date | 2023-01-25 | |
| Identifier | 10.4102/jef.v16i1.805 | |
| Source | Journal of Economic and Financial Sciences; Vol 16, No 1 (2023); 10 pages 2312-2803 1995-7076 | |
| Language | eng | |
| Relation |
The following web links (URLs) may trigger a file download or direct you to an alternative webpage to gain access to a publication file format of the published article:
https://jefjournal.org.za/index.php/jef/article/view/805/1504
https://jefjournal.org.za/index.php/jef/article/view/805/1505
https://jefjournal.org.za/index.php/jef/article/view/805/1506
https://jefjournal.org.za/index.php/jef/article/view/805/1507
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