Comparative performance of cardiovascular risk prediction models in people living with HIV

Southern African Journal of HIV Medicine

Field Value
Title Comparative performance of cardiovascular risk prediction models in people living with HIV
Creator Tahir, Irtiza S. Vos, Alinda G. Damen, Johanna A.A. Barth, Roos E. Tempelman, Hugo A. Grobbee, Diederick E. Scheuermaier, Karine Venter, Willem D.F. Klipstein-Grobusch, Kerstin
Subject Epidemiology; Medicine; HIV; Cardiovascular Disease cardiovascular disease risk; Framingham risk score; D:A:D risk score; Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk Score; people living with HIV; sub-Saharan Africa
Description Background: Current cardiovascular risk assessment in people living with HIV is based on general risk assessment tools; however, whether these tools can be applied in sub-Saharan African populations has been questioned.Objectives: The study aimed to assess cardiovascular risk classification of common cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction models compared to the Data Collection on Adverse Events of Anti-HIV Drugs (D:A:D) 2010 and 2016 models in people living with HIV.Method: Cardiovascular disease risk was estimated by Framingham Cardiovascular and Heart Disease (FHS-CVD, FHS-CHD), Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease (ASCVD) and D:A:D 2010 and 2016 risk prediction models for HIV-infected participants of the Ndlovu Cohort Study, Limpopo, rural South Africa. Participants were classified to be at low ( 10%), moderate (10% – 20%), or high-risk ( 20%) of CVD within 10 years for general CVD and five years for D:A:D models. Kappa statistics were used to determine agreement between CVD risk prediction models. Subgroup analysis was performed according to age.Results: The analysis comprised 735 HIV-infected individuals, predominantly women (56.7%), average age 43.9 (8.8) years. The median predicted CVD risk for D:A:D 2010 and FHS-CVD was 4% and for ASCVD and FHS-CHD models, 3%. For the D:A:D 2016 risk prediction model, the figure was 5%. High 10-year CVD risk was predicted for 2.9%, 0.5%, 0.7%, 3.1% and 6.6% of the study participants by FHS-CVD, FHS-CHD, ASCVD, and D:A:D 2010 and 2016. Kappa statistics ranged from 0.34 for ASCVD to 0.60 for FHS-CVD as compared to the D:A:D 2010 risk prediction model.Conclusion: Overall, predicted CVD risk is low in this population. Compared to D:A:D 2010, CVD risk estimated by the FHS-CVD model showed similar overall results for risk classification. With the exception of the D:A:D model, all other risk prediction models classified fewer people to be at high estimated CVD risk. Prospective studies are needed to develop and validate CVD risk algorithms in people living with HIV in sub-Saharan Africa.
Publisher AOSIS
Contributor Dutch AIDS Foundation Dioraphte Foundation De Grote Onderneming University Medical Center Utrecht, The Netherlands
Date 2022-11-15
Type info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion — Cross-sectional study
Format text/html application/epub+zip text/xml application/pdf
Identifier 10.4102/sajhivmed.v23i1.1395
Source Southern African Journal of HIV Medicine; Vol 23, No 1 (2022); 10 pages 2078-6751 1608-9693
Language eng
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Coverage Southern Africa — Adult men and women; Black South African
Rights Copyright (c) 2022 Irtiza S. Tahir, Alinda G. Vos, Johanna A.A. Damen, Roos E. Barth, Hugo A. Tempelman, Diederick E. Grobbee, Karine Scheuermaier, Willem D.F. Venter, Kerstin Klipstein-Grobusch