Complementing South African inflation surveys: A suitable forecasting tool
Journal of Economic and Financial Sciences
| Field | Value | |
| Title | Complementing South African inflation surveys: A suitable forecasting tool | |
| Creator | van Heerden, Chris Heymans, Andre Seetharam, Yudhvir | |
| Description | Central banks currently perform inflation expectation surveys in order to better align their inflation expectations with that of the general public. However, surveys are time-consuming, complicated, expensive and not always accurate, thus compromising the credibility of these expectations. The complexity of inflation targeting and the difficulty of forecasting in real time can also cause policymakers to consider more basic models, which can lead to inexact forecasts. This article employs less complicated models, such as the seasonally adjusted autoregressive integrated moving average and Holt-Winters exponential smoothing models, to provide equally reliable forecasts. A more complex approach in the form of a non-linear autoregressive neural network process was also employed to model the strategic and rational manner in which the general public formulates their expectations. Overall, the forecast estimates provided by these models were superior when compared with the inflation expectations provided by the International Monetary Fund, South African Reserve Bank and Bureau for Economic Research. | |
| Publisher | AOSIS | |
| Date | 2018-04-30 | |
| Identifier | 10.4102/jef.v11i1.191 | |
| Source | Journal of Economic and Financial Sciences; Vol 11, No 1 (2018); 14 pages 2312-2803 1995-7076 | |
| Language | eng | |
| Relation |
The following web links (URLs) may trigger a file download or direct you to an alternative webpage to gain access to a publication file format of the published article:
https://jefjournal.org.za/index.php/jef/article/view/191/264
https://jefjournal.org.za/index.php/jef/article/view/191/263
https://jefjournal.org.za/index.php/jef/article/view/191/265
https://jefjournal.org.za/index.php/jef/article/view/191/262
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