Enhancing the accuracy of fiscal projections in South Africa
South African Journal of Economic and Management Sciences
| Field | Value | |
| Title | Enhancing the accuracy of fiscal projections in South Africa | |
| Creator | Calitz, Estian Siebrits, Krige Stuart, Ian | |
| Description | The accuracy of the National Treasury's projections of GDP and key fiscal aggregates is comparable to that of the projections of private sector economists, other reputable organisations and the fiscal authorities of other countries. The errors in the projections of the National Treasury have nonetheless been substantial in some years, and have increased from 2000/01 to 2010/11. This paper argues that the credibility of fiscal policy would have been severely tested if the largest annual errors in respect of the various aggregates had coincided. Against this backdrop, the paper makes the case for structured bi-annual discussions of governments forecasts during public parliamentary hearings as a mechanism for improving the accuracy and credibility of official projections. It also discusses the potential benefits for South Africa of two alternative mechanisms, namely fiscal councils and committees of independent experts. | |
| Publisher | AOSIS Publishing | |
| Date | 2016-08-31 | |
| Identifier | 10.4102/sajems.v19i3.1142 | |
| Source | South African Journal of Economic and Management Sciences; Vol 19, No 3 (2016); 330-343 2222-3436 1015-8812 | |
| Language | eng | |
| Relation |
The following web links (URLs) may trigger a file download or direct you to an alternative webpage to gain access to a publication file format of the published article:
https://sajems.org/index.php/sajems/article/view/1142/627
|
|
ADVERTISEMENT
