A heavy goods vehicle fleet forecast for South Africa
Journal of Transport and Supply Chain Management
| Field | Value | |
| Title | A heavy goods vehicle fleet forecast for South Africa | |
| Creator | Havenga, Jan H. le Roux, Phillippus P.T. Simpson, Zane P. | |
| Description | Purpose: To develop and apply a methodology to calculate the heavy goods vehicle fleet required to meet South Africa’s projected road freight transport demand within the context of total surface freight transport demand.Methodology: Total freight flows are projected through the gravity modelling of a geographically disaggregated input–output model. Three modal shift scenarios, defined over a 15-year forecast period, combined with road efficiency improvements, inform the heavy goods vehicle fleet for different vehicle types to serve the estimated future road freight transport demand.Findings: The largest portion of South Africa’s high and growing transport demand will remain on long-distance road corridors. The impact can be moderated through the concurrent introduction of domestic intermodal solutions, performance-based standards in road freight transport and improved vehicle utilisation. This presupposes the prioritisation of collaborative initiatives between government, freight owners and logistics service providers.Research limitations: (1) The impact of short-distance urban movements on fleet numbers is not included yet. (2) Seasonality, which negatively influences bi-directional flows, is not taken into account owing to the annual nature of the macroeconomic data. (3) The methodology can be applied to other countries; the input data are however country-specific and findings can therefore not be generalised. (4) The future possibility of a reduction in absolute transport demand through, for example, reshoring have not been modelled yet.Practical implications: Provides impetus for the implementation of domestic intermodal solutions and road freight performance-based standards to mitigate the impact of growing freight transport demand.Societal implications: More efficient freight transport solutions will reduce national logistics costs and freight-related externalities.Originality: Develops a methodology for forecasting the heavy goods vehicle fleet within the context of total freight transport to inform government policy and industry actions. | |
| Publisher | AOSIS | |
| Date | 2018-06-25 | |
| Identifier | 10.4102/jtscm.v12i0.342 | |
| Source | Journal of Transport and Supply Chain Management; Vol 12 (2018); 12 pages 1995-5235 2310-8789 | |
| Language | eng | |
| Relation |
The following web links (URLs) may trigger a file download or direct you to an alternative webpage to gain access to a publication file format of the published article:
https://jtscm.co.za/index.php/jtscm/article/view/342/675
https://jtscm.co.za/index.php/jtscm/article/view/342/674
https://jtscm.co.za/index.php/jtscm/article/view/342/676
https://jtscm.co.za/index.php/jtscm/article/view/342/671
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